The Montreal Protocol, the only successful environmental agreement? A brief history and evaluation.

The Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer is an environmental agreement that was signed in 1987, initially between 24 countries to phase out the use of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) globally as a result of the detrimental effects that have been observed on the ozone layer. Now, 197 countries have signed the protocol and has widely been successful in phasing out ozone depleting substances. 

The protocol has been widely successful as it was built on a solid scientific foundation where the facts and figures could not be ignored by those in charge. At the time of signing, production of ODSs exceeded 1.8 million tonnes annually which would have caused the entire Earth's ozone layer to collapse by 2050. These were figures that countries could not choose to turn a blind eye to, causing immediate action to be taken. Additionally, the policy was a success as this information did not stay with the scientists but it fed upwards and was adopted by policy makers, politicians, industry professionals and technologists, therefore leading to a combined effort, increasing the effectiveness of the protocol. The combination of all different groups gave it the best chance to succeed globally. By the mid 1990s, production in developed countries of ODSs has largely been stopped, now reaching most LICs stopping the production of CFCs. The Montreal protocol set a mandatory timetable with strict phase out goals which all participating countries had to meet. These were reviewed at regular intervals with dates being adjusted to the latest scientific understanding and advancements in the field. In addition to a strict timetable, the protocol set a binding obligation for developing and developed countries for the progressive phase out commitments for all major ODSs, incorporating around 96 substances in tens of thousands of uses in over 240 industries. Finally, the protocol underwent many adjustments and amendments, with the latest being the Kigali Amendment (6th) for the phase out of HCFCs which came into force in 2019.

However, even though the protocol has had its successes, there have been certain fallbacks which have worsened the situation. Due to the complete phasing out of CFCs and other ODSs, the illegal trade of the substances has begun, meaning that even though they are legally removed, there still persist some countries that continue polluting. India and Korea account for approximately 70% of total global production of CFCs still do this day. Additionally, as seen in the past with other banned substances such as DDT, there is still a significant demand for CFCs in lower income countries as the reliance on equipment using these chemicals remains high. This is worsened by the imports of used refrigeration and air-conditioning and other out of date electronic equipment in places such as Agbogbloshie in Ghana, where there is a significant market for second hand white goods. Therefore, we can see significant regional differences in the effectiveness of the Montreal Protocol.

Overall, it has been seen as a success as production of ODSs has reduced by more than 95% compared to 1986 with production falling to 45,000 tonnes in 2010, despite the continued persistence in lower income countries. The Montreal Protocol can be classified as a success due to a variety of the factors mentioned above, most importantly, the progressive, flexible and strict nature of the protocol. The ability to adapt allowed the protocol to be effective given the latest changes in information and technology. Unlike other environmental agreements such as the Paris Climate Accord, the Montreal Protocol could flourish as it was backed by legislation, not giving countries autonomy or freedom to do as they see fit, but set strict timetables and limits, which has been the most deciding factor in allowing the success of the Protocol.

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